The resolution establishes an estimate of $34.282 billion in total general revenue; this differs from estimates by the Governor’s Office of Management and Budget and the House of Representatives. It more closely resembles that of the Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability because the Senate used many of the same assumptions. COGFA is a bipartisan commission with equal representation from both chambers of the General Assembly and both political parties.

This estimate will be used by the Senate Appropriations Committees as they apply our “budgeting for results” commitment. Senator Dan Kotowski, author of the budgeting for results bill passed in Senate Bill 3660, presented this resolution with colleagues Senators Heather Steans, Pam Althoff and Matt Murphy.

Discussion on the floor during debate pointed out that this is a snapshot and as changes in the economy occur during the next several weeks, these projections may need to be adjusted to reflect changes. Because of differences in the content of the House and Senate versions, SJR 29 will require House approval for adoption. The resolution may be taken up in the House as soon as the next session week beginning March 29.

Here are the differences between the Senate’s estimates and those of the House, GOMB and COGFA:

• GOMB and the House assume a shorter period of lag time in revenue collection from the January tax increase than COGFA and the Senate, meaning that in their estimates there will be more revenue in FY 2011 and less in FY 2012.
• GOMB and the House used a pessimistic growth rate, while COGFA and the Senate used a baseline growth rate, resulting in a higher revenue estimate for the Senate and COGFA.
• COGFA and the Senate used a 17.5% corporate refund rate (which has been in place since FY 2009) while GOMB and the House used an older 12.5% rate.
• The House and the Senate assumed no change in statute.  GOMB and COGFA assumed that the state will decouple from a federal change in bonus depreciation for investments in machinery, which would require legislative action.